ビットコイン (Bitcoin)の‌価格

Market Analysis | November 11, 2026 THE MARKET IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LIQUIDITY PRESSURE A successful network upgrade has not prevented Zcash from suffering a sharp correction. Bitcoin has slipped below $74,000 as US spot ETF withdrawals continue, while LT has posted a short-term gain without enough verified trading-volume data to establish the strength of its recovery. These developments tell different stories, but they raise one common investment question: is the cryptocurrency market losing the depth of demand needed to sustain higher prices? My read: this is a liquidity and demand problem, not yet evidence of a market-wide collapse. Bitcoin ETF flows, spot-market participation and the ability of buyers to defend important support levels will matter more than isolated price rebounds. MARKET SNAPSHOT The following figures are taken from the supplied trading-chart snapshot. They have not been independently authenticated against an archived Bitget chart. The original brief identifies the analysis as 15-minute chart analysis, so that timeframe is retained provisionally. Zcash (ZEC/USDT) Supplied price: $977.28 | 24-hour change: -14.55% - 24-hour high: $1,199.26 - 24-hour low: $966.29 - MACD: -0.76 - DIF: -12.84 - DEA: -12.08 - Support: $966.29 → $950 → $900 - Resistance: $991.25 → $1,022.31 → $1,053.36 ZEC has the weakest short-term price structure in this comparison. Its negative MACD reading and DIF below DEA indicate bearish momentum on the supplied chart. The immediate test is $966.29. A sustained 15-minute close below that level would expose $950 and potentially $900. Recovery above $991.25 would provide an early sign of stabilisation. Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Supplied price: $73,739.54 | 24-hour change: -1.11% - 24-hour high: $74,849.99 - 24-hour low: $72,732.01 - DIF: -37.90 - DEA: -42.96 - Support: $73,450 → $73,217 → $72,732 - Resistance: $74,179 → $74,850 → $75,500 Bitcoin remains below the $74,850 resistance area. However, the supplied DIF is above the DEA, meaning the MACD relationship is more constructive than the original bearish description suggested. Both values are negative, so this is not confirmation of a bullish reversal. A sustained move above $74,850 would strengthen the recovery case. The originally supplied MACD value of -5.06 is omitted because it conflicts with the supplied DIF and DEA under the standard MACD calculation. LT (LTUSDT Perpetual) Supplied price: $45.244 | 24-hour change: +1.39% - 24-hour high: $45.485 - 24-hour low: $44.580 - MACD: -0.013 - DIF: 0.091 - DEA: 0.104 - Support: $45.07 → $44.80 → $44.58 - Resistance: $45.485 → $45.58 LT has retreated from its $45.485 high, while its DIF remains below its DEA. That suggests weakening short-term momentum despite the positive daily return. A break above $45.485 would improve the recovery structure; losing $44.58 would weaken it. All three chart snapshots and technical indicators require confirmation from the original exchange screenshots before publication. THE FULL ANALYSIS I. ZEC: Network Progress Has Not Translated Into Sustained Buying Zcash's correction highlights the difference between improving network infrastructure and improving token-market demand. The NU7 upgrade activated on November 6, 2026, at block 3,543,405. It reduced the target block interval from 75 seconds to 25 seconds and introduced the Network Sustainability Mechanism, which directs 60% of transaction fees into a reserve for future network support. Block subsidies were adjusted proportionally, preserving the intended daily issuance rate and the existing 21 million ZEC supply cap. These changes were confirmed in reporting on the upgrade by The Block and ZecStats. [1][2] The technical development is significant, but the token's price response has been disappointing. The upgrade did not establish a lasting floor beneath ZEC's valuation. One possible explanation is profit-taking after the event. Traders who bought ahead of NU7 may have decided to realise gains once the upgrade became operational. That is a plausible market interpretation, not a confirmed explanation for the entire decline. Investment-product flows provide another piece of evidence. According to The Block's November 10 report, citing SoSoValue data, Grayscale's Zcash Trust ETF (ZCSH) recorded more than $15 million in November net outflows through November 10, excluding that day's figures, following $46.25 million in October net outflows. [3] These withdrawals indicate weaker demand for ZCSH. They should not be treated as a direct measurement of all ZEC spot-market selling, since ETF flows represent activity within a particular investment vehicle. The earlier liquidation figures also need caution. The original claim of $4.13 million in ZEC long liquidations and $27.08 million across the wider market has not been independently confirmed against a dated liquidation-tracker record. Those numbers are therefore excluded from this analysis. For traders, the immediate question is whether ZEC can hold the supplied $966.29 support. A breakdown would increase the risk of a move towards $950 and $900. A recovery above $991.25 would be an early indication that sellers are losing control. The longer-term investment case remains separate from this short-term technical weakness. NU7 may improve network functionality, but its eventual economic value depends on actual adoption, transaction activity and sustained demand for ZEC. II. Bitcoin: ETF Withdrawals Are A Measurable Warning, Not The Whole Market Bitcoin's position is more complicated than a simple bearish price chart suggests. Farside Investors recorded $201.0 million in aggregate US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows on November 9, followed by another $95.0 million on November 10. The two sessions therefore produced $296.0 million in combined net withdrawals. [4] BlackRock's IBIT recorded $213.2 million in outflows on November 9 and $78.2 million on November 10. IBIT's individual outflow exceeded the November 9 aggregate because other funds, including Morgan Stanley's MSBT, recorded inflows that partially offset the withdrawals. This distinction is important when interpreting institutional demand. IBIT also recorded eight consecutive sessions of outflows from October 30 through November 10. That is a meaningful deterioration in one major channel of Bitcoin investment demand, although ETF activity alone cannot establish what every institutional investor is doing. There are also buyers moving in the opposite direction. Strategy announced an additional purchase of 1,036 BTC, bringing its reported holdings to 850,364 BTC. This shows that corporate accumulation continued even while ETF flows were negative. The two developments can coexist because different investors have different investment horizons and funding strategies. Miner selling adds another dimension. MARA Holdings disclosed in its November 9, 2026 Form 8-K, under Item 2.02, with its shareholder letter attached as Exhibit 99.1, that it sold 13,597 BTC after the end of the third quarter at an average price of approximately $81,039, generating around $1.1 billion. The company used $750 million of those proceeds to repay its Bitcoin-collateralised loans, releasing 17,477 BTC previously pledged as collateral. [5] This was a significant balance-sheet transaction. It should not be interpreted as $1.1 billion of Bitcoin being sold specifically to finance AI infrastructure. MARA described its wider capital-allocation priorities as including liquidity, capital projects and other initiatives. The macroeconomic environment provides another reason for caution. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released October CPI data on November 10. Headline CPI increased 0.4% month-on-month, while the index excluding food and energy increased 0.3%. These figures were reported against September's respective increases of 0.6% and 0.3%. [6] Reuters reported that both monthly figures exceeded economists' expectations and that financial markets strengthened their expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate increase. [7] One limitation matters here: because October 2025 survey data were unavailable following the government shutdown, the BLS could not publish the normal October 2026 year-on-year CPI comparison. For Bitcoin, the implications are mainly about financial conditions. If persistent inflation keeps Treasury yields elevated, investors may become more selective about speculative assets. Higher financing costs can also make leveraged exposure less attractive. But the relationship is not automatic. Bitcoin's price also responds to spot demand, liquidity, dollar movements, investor positioning and expectations about future monetary policy. The technical levels in the supplied snapshot remain important. Bitcoin needs to reclaim $74,850 to provide stronger evidence of recovery. Until then, $73,450, $73,217 and the $72,732 daily low are important downside references. The strongest confirmation would be a recovery accompanied by improving spot volume and a return to positive aggregate ETF flows. III. LT: A Smaller Market Requires Greater Caution LT's supplied chart shows a gain of 1.39%, but the price has retreated from $45.485 to $45.244. Without a verified historical turnover and open-interest record, there is insufficient evidence to describe the move as a liquidity-driven pump or to attribute it to a particular group of traders. The technical picture is still useful. DIF at 0.091 remains below DEA at 0.104, while the MACD reading is -0.013. That indicates weakening short-term momentum despite the positive daily performance. The $45.485 level is the immediate resistance to watch. A sustained break above it would strengthen the recovery case. On the downside, $44.80 and $44.58 are important support references. LT should be treated as an individual derivatives-market setup rather than evidence of institutional capital rotation across the wider cryptocurrency market. IV. The Larger Issue Is The Quality Of Demand The three assets highlight different weaknesses in market participation. ZEC has made a significant technical improvement, but its price has struggled to sustain the optimism surrounding that development. Its investment-product outflows add evidence of weaker demand through one channel. Bitcoin remains the market leader, but its ETF figures show that institutional investment flows can deteriorate even while corporate accumulation continues. MARA's sale also illustrates how balance-sheet decisions can introduce additional Bitcoin supply into the market. LT, meanwhile, demonstrates why short-term price performance needs to be considered alongside trading depth and participation. The October inflation report adds a macroeconomic constraint. Persistent price pressures can limit the Federal Reserve's flexibility, influence bond yields and increase the opportunity cost of holding volatile assets. My central concern is that a market rebound could prove fragile if prices improve without corresponding improvements in spot demand and institutional flows. That does not mean a broader collapse is inevitable. A return of ETF inflows, stronger spot-market participation and stabilisation in Bitcoin could improve sentiment across the market. ZEC could also regain investor interest if its network improvements translate into measurable adoption. The evidence needs to come first. For now, I would monitor aggregate ETF flows, Bitcoin spot volume, Treasury yields, liquidation activity and whether altcoins begin participating in any recovery led by BTC. WHAT INVESTORS SHOULD WATCH - Bitcoin: A sustained recovery above $74,850, supported by improving spot participation. - ZEC: Whether buyers defend $966.29 or the market moves towards lower support. - ETF demand: Whether US spot Bitcoin funds return to net inflows after the November 9–10 withdrawals. - Inflation: Whether subsequent economic data support a less restrictive Federal Reserve outlook. - Market liquidity: Whether price advances are accompanied by stronger trading activity rather than isolated movements in individual derivatives contracts. STREET DEBATE Is the current weakness primarily a temporary liquidity problem, or is institutional demand beginning to deteriorate more deeply? Can Bitcoin recover above $74,850 while ETF flows remain negative? And does ZEC's successful network upgrade still provide a convincing investment case after such a sharp correction? Share your analysis and the evidence supporting your position. $BTC $ZEC $LT

🚨 CRYPTO MARKET ALERT: BITCOIN UNDER PRESSURE, ETHEREUM WEAKENS, AND HYPERLIQUID ($HYPE) FACES A MAJOR TEST! The crypto market is experiencing another wave of uncertainty as Bitcoin struggles to maintain its price levels. Meanwhile, Ethereum and several major altcoins are facing selling pressure. But some interesting developments are happening beneath the surface. Here's what crypto investors should watch closely. 👇 🔴 1. $BTC — BITCOIN FACES AN IMPORTANT SUPPORT TEST Bitcoin recently traded around $73,500 after another decline. The latest US inflation data came in above expectations, increasing concerns about monetary policy and putting additional pressure on risk assets. Another concern is institutional selling. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced substantial outflows, while MARA Holdings reportedly sold 13,597 BTC worth approximately $1.1 billion to repay a loan. The big question: Can $BTC attract enough buying pressure to recover, or will sellers push the market lower? 🔵 2. $ETH — ETHEREUM STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN MOMENTUM Ethereum has also been under pressure, recently trading around $2,050. Institutional ETF outflows and weaker overall market sentiment have affected demand. However, Ethereum remains one of the most important blockchain ecosystems because of its DeFi, stablecoin, staking, and tokenization infrastructure. Investors will be watching whether $ETH can reclaim important price levels and outperform Bitcoin again. ⚡ 3. $HYPE — HYPERLIQUID GETS A MAJOR EXCHANGE LISTING One of the interesting stories this week involves Hyperliquid. South Korean exchange Upbit added trading support for $HYPE, creating another opportunity for the token to reach a wider trading audience. However, despite the listing, $HYPE has continued to decline amid broader market weakness. This creates an interesting situation: Will increased exchange access bring fresh demand, or will market conditions continue to dominate its price action? 🟣 4. XRP — KEEP AN EYE ON RIPPLE $XRP remains one of the most closely watched large-cap altcoins. Investors are monitoring institutional adoption, regulatory developments, and Ripple's expanding payments ecosystem. In a volatile market, the ability of $XRP to maintain relative strength could be worth watching. 🟢 5. $SOL — SOLANA AND THE ALTCOIN MARKET Solana remains an important ecosystem to watch because of its DeFi activity, decentralized exchanges, meme coins, and growing application ecosystem. If market liquidity returns, $SOL could become one of the tokens attracting renewed attention from traders. 📊 6. WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT? There are three important scenarios to consider: 🐂 BULLISH SCENARIO: If inflation concerns ease, institutional ETF inflows return, and $BTC recovers, major altcoins such as $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, and $HYPE could benefit. 🐻 BEARISH SCENARIO: If selling pressure continues, ETF outflows increase, and macroeconomic conditions worsen, the market could experience another correction. ⚖️ NEUTRAL SCENARIO: Bitcoin could consolidate while traders rotate between selected altcoins, creating opportunities for short-term volatility. 🔥 FINAL THOUGHT The current market is a reminder that even strong projects can experience significant price declines during periods of uncertainty. Instead of chasing every green candle, investors should pay attention to liquidity, trading volume, fundamentals, token unlocks, and market structure. December could become an important month for crypto, but the market still needs confirmation before anyone can confidently call a recovery. 💬 LET'S TALK! 1️⃣ Are you buying $BTC at these levels? 2️⃣ Which has more potential for the next rally: $ETH, $SOL, or $HYPE? 3️⃣ Do you think $XRP can outperform the market? 4️⃣ Are we preparing for a recovery or another major correction? 👇 DROP YOUR TOP 3 CRYPTO PICKS!

$GRVT HIVE Digital Technologies and MARA Holdings mined more Bitcoin in the September quarter than a year earlier but reported lower mining revenue, as weaker Bitcoin prices outweighed gains in production. According to their latest regulatory filings, HIVE’s Bitcoin production increased 49% to 1,070 Bitcoin (BTC), while mining revenue fell 7.4% to $76 million. MARA reported a similar pattern, with production rising 5% to 2,247 BTC and Bitcoin mining revenue dropping 34% to $159 million. Both companies reported higher power bills and equipment charges. HIVE’s electricity costs rose 20% to $45.6 million, while MARA’s purchased energy costs increased 12% to $48.1 million as it expanded its owned mining operations. HIVE also recorded a $31.2 million noncash write-down on mining equipment, citing “depressed mining economics,” while MARA separately wrote off $12 million involving mining rigs and equipment under restructuring plans. Both results add to signs of pressure on Bitcoin mining economics. American Bitcoin last week reported weaker mining margins despite a treasury-driven quarterly profit, while Core Scientific said it plans to leave mining entirely by year-end. HIVE and MARA expand AI businesses alongside mining Unlike Core Scientific, HIVE and MARA are both continuing to invest in Bitcoin mining alongside artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. HIVE’s HPC hosting revenue rose 71% to $8.8 million in the September quarter, accounting for 10.4% of total revenue. The company has described its strategy as combining cash flow from mining with recurring revenue from AI infrastructure. Related: American Bitcoin’s $126M profit masks mining pressure as rivals turn to AI HIVE said it anticipates spending up to $493 million over 36 months to expand its HPC operations, including acquiring land, building out data center infrastructure and buying up GPUs. The company reported spending $145.3 million toward that expansion as of the filing. HIVE also plans to spend about $35 million converting its Toronto facility into a Tier-III data center. Meanwhile, it continues to expand its mining infrastructure, targeting a 100-megawatt substation expansion at its Yguazú site in Paraguay during 2026. MARA is also developing AI infrastructure through its Exaion subsidiary and a partnership with Starwood Digital Ventures. It said it intends to operate sites that can shift between workloads depending on economics, demand and grid conditions, with Bitcoin mining remaining the foundation of its platform. Treasury gains lift MARA profit, HIVE reports quarterly loss HIVE’s Nasdaq-listed shares fell 1.7% to $1.78 in after-hours trading Monday, according to Google Finance, after closing the regular session up 1.7% at $1.81. The company reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $84.9 million, down 2.7% from a year earlier but above the $79.4 million consensus estimate listed by MarketBeat. Meanwhile, MARA reported net income attributable to common stockholders of $634.4 million, up from $123.1 million a year earlier, and included substantial fair-value gains on digital assets and digital asset receivables. MARA reported quarterly revenue of $164.2 million, down 35% year-on-year, and diluted earnings of $1.28 a share, up from 27 cents, while its shares were little changed at $6.64 in after-hours trading Monday after closing up 4.6%. Magazine: Should you leave Australia to avoid paying 47% tax on crypto gains?

$GRVT US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extended their losses Monday, with BlackRock’s flagship fund recording its seventh consecutive day of withdrawals. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest US spot Bitcoin ETF by assets, posted $213 million in outflows on Monday, bringing the outflow streak since Oct. 30 to $1.66 billion, according to Farside Investors data. The broader Bitcoin ETF market shed another $201 million, as $22 million in inflows to the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust ETF (MSBT) partially offset the losses. The funds have recorded around $1.5 billion in net outflows over the past six trading sessions. The outflows bring year-to-date net withdrawals to $1.1 billion, compared with roughly $25 billion in net inflows by early November in both 2024 and 2025. The weakness persists despite Coinbase’s newly effective US national trust bank charter. ETF outflows persist at a slower pace Monday’s outflows slowed from Friday’s $412 million, while broader crypto market sentiment showed signs of improvement. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index improved to 32 from 29 on Monday and 26 a week earlier, though it remained in “Fear” territory, according to Alternative.me. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me Outflows from US spot Ether ETFs accelerated to roughly $185 million Monday, their largest daily withdrawals since Oct. 6. Bitcoin traded at approximately $74,594 at the time of publication, down 2.8% over the past seven days but up slightly over the previous 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Coinbase banking news meets muted crypto market response Kevin Boeve, a veteran trader and business development executive at tokenized real estate platform Palladium Network, pointed to the disconnect between rising stocks and falling cryptocurrency prices. “Stocks are up while crypto keeps falling, even with the big Coinbase news,” Boeve told Cointelegraph. “In the past, news like that would’ve sent crypto flying, but now it barely moves the needle,” he added. Related: PNC Bank tests turning USDC payments into dollar deposits Boeve was referring to Coinbase’s national trust bank charter, which took effect Friday, allowing the company to hold digital assets on behalf of clients under federal oversight. The trader called the divergence a warning sign, predicting a major stock market correction that could escalate into a broader sell-off. Magazine: Vitalik ‘pivots’ ETH to store of value, crypto suffers after US midterms: Hodler’s Digest